Usquequodomine1958: A Theoretical Model of the Crisis in the Catholic Church

Friday, 6 June 2025

A Theoretical Model of the Crisis in the Catholic Church

A Theoretical Model of the Crisis in the Catholic Church - Free download (PDF)

Since the Second Vatican Council, the Church has altered her faith, doctrine, discipline, and worship. Such a scenario is impossible because it contradicts the doctrine of the indefectibility of the Church.

Sedevacantists maintain that the post-conciliar Church has defected and therefore cannot be the same divine institution founded by Our Lord. However, they are unable to explain how the new religion replaced the former with minimal resistance.

The historical circumstances surrounding the 1958 conclave and the onset of the conciliar religion remain obscure. In this light, the black box model—which studies systems by focusing on known data rather than unknown internal mechanisms—seems to offer a valuable tool for understanding the ongoing crisis in the Church.

This article proposes the black box model as a way to understand the post-conciliar revolution, even in the absence of discernible mechanisms that might explain such a change.

What is the black box model?

In systems theory, a black box is an open system in which only the inputs (stimuli) and outputs (responses or reactions) are visible, while the internal structure or process remains occult.

'A system is a complex of interacting elements. Open systems interact with their surroundings and are capable of importing and exporting information.' (von Bertalanffy 1968, 55, 141).

Input refers to anything that enters the system from its environment. Output is what is processed by the system (the black box) and sent to the environment.

For example:

A person presses a button on the remote (the input or stimulus)
The television turns on (the reaction).
The internal mechanism that produces the output is the black box. It consists of the interactions of electronic elements that result in a specific response, even if the process remains unknown to us.

The black box model applied to the current crisis

The death of Pope Pius XII marked the end of an era. What followed, the 1958 conclave, Vatican II, and the new liturgy constituted a total rupture with Catholicism and the beginning of a new religion. The black box is a perfect analogy for the crisis. We cannot explain how all this came to be. We ignore how the elements interacted, and what processes were required to bring about this revolution. We can only comprehend the inputs and outputs.

Input: The death of Pius XII and the 1958 conclave

The death of the last valid Pope and the vacancy of the Apostolic See were followed by the unusual conclave of 1958, which resulted in the election of John XXIII, who, just three months later, would convene the Second Vatican Council.

Output: Vatican II created a new religion

New doctrines, including Ecumenism, religious liberty, collegiality, etc.
The Novus Ordo Missae
New Sacraments
New Saints
New ecclesiology

What is inside the box?

As our method is restricted to empirical evidence, we can only speculate.

Here is what could be inside the black box:

The unknown facts and circumstances concerning the conclave of 1958
The existence of a hidden pope or bishops with ordinary jurisdiction
An explanation for the near-universal episcopal acceptance of John XXIII, Paul VI, and the new religion

Advantages, weaknesses and limitations of this method

Advantages

Objectivity
Evidence-based
Method appropriate to the object
Avoids unfounded speculation
Provides an analytical tool to explain the mystery of iniquity

Disadvantages

Incompleteness
Restricted to the inputs and outputs
Reductionist approach
Risk of Bias
Provides descriptive rather than explanatory knowledge

Limitations

This model is useful for recognising that a system has failed, but it cannot explain how or why it failed. It cannot reveal the internal mechanisms, intentions, or causal processes within the black box. As such, it produces descriptive knowledge without offering a thorough explanation of how or why the rupture occurred.

To sum up:

Since the Second Vatican Council, the Church has changed her faith, doctrine, discipline, and worship.
Sedevacantists acknowledge these facts but have not yet explained how the new religion replaced the previous one with minimal effective resistance.
The black box model provides a useful analytical tool for cases where internal mechanisms are inaccessible, such as the historical events surrounding the 1958 conclave and the emergence of the Novus Ordo Sect.
According to this model, only inputs and outputs are observable, while internal processes remain hidden.
Input: The death of Pope Pius XII and the 1958 conclave.
Output: The post-conciliar revolution.
The processes and mechanisms within the black box that have led us to the current state of affairs remain unknown.

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